BRASSball Farm System Rankings - Part II

Simi Valley's Freddie Freeman

I received quite a bit of feedback on my initial post about the BRASSball Farm System Rankings. Most of the response was positive, but almost everyone that contacted me wanted more details on how I arrived at assigning a score to each team. Before I get into individual BRASS team breakdowns, I thought I would share a little more about my analytic process that I applied, and provide some examples.

First of all, I want to make it clear that this list is never-ending, in a way. I mean, there are always prospect lists and updates being churned out. They're being revamped all the time with new information, updates due to Arizona Fall League performance, injuries, trades, and general change of opinion by the author(s). We fellow BRASS managers just can't seem to leave our rosters alone either.

For these reasons, I've decided to keep a dedicated page for the rankings for everyone's reference. I will post the last time the list was updated, and if there was a change to the team's overall points.

With every list, there needs to be a reason why one player is ranked above the other. As I stated in my previous post, most lists rely on opinions and educational guesses. I tried to put together a system that ranks prospects and young players based on statistics and "fact." However, I would argue with myself that my system is also about opinion because of how I chose to put it together.

Player Progression

Player progression is the number one contributor when assigning a score and rank to a BRASSball team. This doesn't mean that the individual player's low score makes him any more or less desirable, or indicates that the player will be a five-tool stud or a bust. In my mind, it's simply a measurement of a prospect's value when compared to what they were projected to do: make it to the major leagues. 

A player will score higher if they were ranked as a "top prospect" prior to the previous season and advanced to the major leagues in a way that removed the player as a "prospect." The removal is based on the player's appearance on annual top prospect lists and rankings.

Here's an example of three players from Atlanta, and how they scored in this system in terms of progression: Freddie Freeman (Simi Valley), Julio Teheran (Parkland), and J.J. Hoover (North Georgia).

Freeman was awarded a significant amount of "Progression Factor" (PF) points because he had an average 2011 prospect rank of 2 and advanced to the majors in 2011. Teheran is currently the #1 prospect in the Braves' system, but he was also the #1 prospect last year. While Teheran did advance to the majors with 19 2/3 innings pitched, his appearance on every prospect ranking list in the country hurt his PF score this year. Basically, yes, he's a top prospect and is projected to be great, so his advancement to the majors in 2011 (while being highly ranked in 2011 and 2012) is not that surprising. However, he will have a significant PF score next season if he is called up at any point in 2012 and plays himself away from the "prospect" label.

In fact, if Teheran does plays enough to no longer be considered a prospect, he'll be awarded more PF points than Freeman received this year. This is because a higher-ranked prospect that makes the majors is more-likely to contribute value to his team than a lower-ranked prospect.

Hoover's ranking, on the other hand, actually declined slightly and was not called up to Atlanta to pitch last season. Therefore, he actually lost PF points. This doesn't mean Hoover isn't a prospect or won't get called up. In some cases, a MLB organization strengthened itself at the top through trades or the draft. All it means is the prospect hasn't yet contributed a positive value to the long-term outlook of the BRASSball team.

Currently, Parkland's overall score is lower than you might think. What makes my system different than your traditional organizational ranking scheme is that I'm emphasizing more of what a prospect has done recently than solely on what a prospect is proposed to do. This has value in a Strat-O-Matic league where we speculate, manage, and play in two worlds: the previous and the current Major League Baseball seasons.

BRASSball Farm System Rankings

Fleetwood's Mike Trout

I'm a Baseball prospect junkie. I'm also a stats geek. I both love and hate Microsoft Excel. Put all of that together, and you get what I call the BRASSball Farm System Rankings (BFSR). I always ask myself if I enjoy Baseball and Strat-O-Matic more this time of year than during the actual MLB season. I think I can admit that I probably enjoy them at least equally.

While the Hot Stoves are burning this time of year, the various publications and online sources publish their prospect rankings for the upcoming year. These rankings come in various forms: by organization, position, and overall. Some of the lists include grades, while others include projected WARs, and some are based solely off production and projections. Sprinkle in some opinions and a dash of politics, and you have your lists. 

Sure, these lists are great when you're up in the draft and the clock is ticking away. You don't know what you're doing so you start scanning the top prospects by organization alphabetically until you find Billy Hamilton from Cincinnati available (D'oh! Wait, that was me). But how do you weigh one source's opinion over the other? How much "opinion" or infatuation about a player influences a player's position on a list? This is where my system comes into play.

What I did was take what I consider to be the most reputable sources and combine all of these lists into one, massive ranking system. Then, I decided to award bonus points if the player showed up with other types of ranking attributes such as grades, stars, tools, etc. I also gave additional points to players that ranked higher when compared against each other at a position or overall ranking regardless of the organization.

I also put a huge emphasis on player progression. If a player was considered a prospect of some kind in 2011, and advanced to the majors to any degree, they received a substantial number of "progression points." That's what it's all about, getting to the BIGs, right? All in all, it looks like chaos, but it makes sense to me and my whacked out brain.

Now on to the good stuff: the actual list for BRASSball. I'll admit that that this list is not 100% complete, but just about every player I consider to be eligible has been factored in one way or another. Also: no hard feelings either way as this list is automatically generated from the data.

RANK	TEAM	BFSR POINTS
1	San Jose	214.53
2	Fleetwood	200.63
3	Metropolis	196.91
4	Portsmouth	194.07
5	California	161.74
6	Fremont	148.22
7	Santa Barbara	146.33
8	Cook County	140.32
9	Brew City	132.69
10	Parkland	117.32
11	North Georgia	94.26
12	Hessville	93.92
13	Superior	90.10
14	Plaza	89.30
15	Tinley	83.09
16	Florence	82.71
17	SoCal	82.28
18	Simi Valley	78.52
19	Glen Allen	74.18
20	Lancaster	73.79
21	Springfield	64.30
22	Brooklyn	51.84
23	Palm Harbor	42.06
24	Latrobe	27.89

Why did I do this? Well, I needed to satisfy the Baseball stats nerd in me, but ideally, this list can help all of us. The goal was to provide some meaningful number that would allow each team to take stock in their amateurs, minor leaguers, and young stars. It should give each team a sense of how competitive they'll be for the long-term. The rankings are not meant to project how a team will perform during the upcoming or current season. 

In future blog posts, I'm going to provide more details team-by-team, so you can see those numbers somewhat justified. I will also post updates to the list as players are traded and more prospect information rolls in during the off-season.

Aramis Returns to California, Signs New Four-Year Deal

The 2011 BRASSball Free Agency period is well underway. With hopes low for adding any new players to the roster, the California Roadrunners opted to re-sign their only restricted free agent, Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez returns to the Roadrunners with a four-year contract worth $14.26M.

In 2010, Ramirez had a down year to say the least. He hit .210 with 19 home runs and 69 RBI. He was also a defensive liability at third. So why re-sign him to this long-term deal? Obviously, the club feels strongly that a huge season is right in front of him, but Ramirez factors into the team's long-term plans as well.

Aramis will be eligible to play in about 157 games, which means he will be the team's full-time third baseman in 2011. Being able to plug in a guy at a position and know that you can run him out there every day of the season and be productive is quite a luxury. A luxury the Roadrunners were able to afford.

Ramirez's eligible usage is second only to Carlos Lee, the team's full-time DH. However, Lee is only under contract for 2012, and will be an unrestricted free agent after next season. This opens up the DH spot for Ramirez for the final three years of his deal, while Brett Lawrie and/or Scott Sizemore take over at third base.

The other factor is that California is gambling on winning the AL West next season. Sure, Santa Barbara pulled away down the stretch and is currently participating in the World Series against Springfield. However, it makes sense to return arguably the top third baseman on the free agent market to the fold. Ramirez will be expected to hit cleanup in most lineup variations, somewhere between or around Josh Hamilton, Torii Hunter, and Carlos Lee.

Setting Up for a Roadrunners Run in 2012

There have been twenty-three trades in BRASSball this off-season. I don't know if that's a league record or not, but it's the most I can ever remember in all of my years playing Strat-O-Matic. All of these players, picks, and cash moving around makes me a little nervous. I wonder about the uncertainty of all this change and how it will affect teams in the long run. You have to hope that every trade made will end up helping both teams equally, but you and I both know that's never the case. Why would you make a trade if you didn't feel that you were getting some kind of edge in the deal?

California ignited the BRASSball Hot Stove when we dealt Jose Bautista to Metropolis, and Plaza turned up the heat when Justin Verlander was moved to Latrobe. Since those two deals, BRASSball has seen the following exchanged:

• 71 players, including Matt Kemp, Roy Halladay, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Jeremy Hellickson, Trevor Bauer, Michael Pineda, and Kevin Youkilis
• 17 draft picks, including one #1, two #2s, and three #3s
• $7,433,333 cash, almost half of which spent by San Jose to acquire Jurikson Profar from Cook County

Cook County and San Jose each made seven trades (so far) between October 2011 and November 2011. The California Roadrunners were the next most active club with six. We've already broken down the Jose Bautista deal, so here's a rundown of the other five deals.

California trades Chris Volstad to Frisco for GAU #6 (2012)

This was simply a move to give Frisco (now San Jose) some cheap innings pitched, with some moderate potential for Volstad to finally break out. The Roadrunners had given up on Volstad and were considering his release as an open roster spot looked more appealing.

Springfield trades Sean Marshall to California for CAL #3 (2012)

This deal was pretty much about ego. Sean Marshall was dealt to Springfield prior to the 2011 season in the Gerrit Cole deal. While California is still pleased to have Cole in their amateur system, moving Marshall as part of the deal left some regret. During the entire 2011 MLB season, Marshall was observed, and the club wanted him back as part of their 2012 squad. California has a handful of goals for 2012. One of those goals is having one of the top bullpens in the AL. Marshall will hopefully help achieve that goal.

Latrobe trades Roy Halladay, Yorvit Torrealba to California for Ivan Nova, Christian Friedrich, CAL #2 (2012), CAL #4 (2012)

This. Was. The. Big. One. Dealing Bautista was difficult, but necessary. The couple of trades that followed were nice, but not game-changers. Adding long-time BRASSball ace Roy Halladay has, on paper, upset the balance of the AL West. Having to move Nova and Friedrich along with two high draft picks may appear to be costly for the future of the franchise, but Halladay is under contract for both 2012 and 2013. Nova was penciled in as the #4 starter behind Kennedy, Beckett, and Norris. Friedrich projected as a "Cliff Lee type," but didn't look like he was going to be ready for full-time action for another two years. Not to be forgotten in the deal is Torrealba. He gives the team a starting catcher after entering the off-season with zero plate appearances from behind the dish.

Lancaster trades Torii Hunter to California for Julio Borbon, Chris Valaika

Now that Doc Halladay was in the fold, there was some internal pressure to make sure the Roadrunners were in a position to win. Win NOW, I should say. When Lancaster put Torii Hunter on the block, California reacted and struck first. Hunter is tied up with an expensive contract (he'll be on the second year of a three-year, $12.99M deal), but his offense and defense is actually a significant upgrade. The only other real offensive threat under contract is Josh Hamilton, and he has injury concerns entering 2012. Hunter, while expensive, brings some pop, some glove, and a lot of stability to the roster.

Cook County trades Matt Thornton to California for CAL #6 (2012), $350k

The Roadrunners picked up lefty Matt Thornton as sort of a last-minute, impulse-buy-kind-of deal. When putting together a playoff-caliber bullpen, you want to have a lefty specialist that you can whip out in the 7th or 8th inning with the game on the line. The Roadrunners now have two of those after picking up Thornton to go alongside Sean Marshall. With two sixth-round picks in the 2012 draft, moving one of them was not an issue. Cook County loves him some cash in a trade, so the $350K keeps him happy.

All in all, it was a busy off-season for California. Many a draft-pick were dealt away, as was about $10M in money spent on contracts. The Roadrunners, basically, looked at it as two free agency signing periods, and didn't mind spending some of it's hard-earned coin on some players that are poised to play key roles in what hopes to be a fun and exciting 2012 season. 

BOOM HEY OUTTA HERE

I fully blame our illustrious Commissioner, Brian, for this now being stuck in my head:

And the reference to the "BOOM HEY OUTTA HERE" gloss:

And now that this is stuck in your head, we can consider it part of the formal BRASSball lore.

A Tweet By Torii Hunter, Illustrated

Via Fangraphs at http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/a-tweet-by-torii-hunter-illustrated/

Bautista Dealt to Metropolis for Four Players

There comes a time when you need to make the tough decisions in hopes to make your team better for the longer term. That day arrived courtesy of a trade with the Metropolis Avengers. Will it upset fans hoping for another offensive outburst in California in 2012? Yeah, probably. Did the Roadrunners deal away a potential top 3 AL MVP candidate in Jose Bautista? Most certainly.

In a major off-season move, the California Roadrunners sent slugger and OPS monster Jose Bautista to the Metropolis Avengers in exchange for Josh Beckett, Mitch Moreland, Jason Motte, and Jarrod Parker. Roadrunners' GM Brendan Conrad held a press conference this week to try and explain the organization's position in trading arguably one of the best BRASSball players.

"Listen: we were about to enter the off-season free agency period with only 2 1/2 legitimate starting pitchers, no DH or first baseman, no catcher, and no bullpen. With one trade, we were able to get a 30-game starter, an actual glove at first base (no offense, El Caballo), a closer, and a top pitching prospect. I don't know where else we would be able to secure upgrades in all of those spots without having to spend our entire bank account in the free agent market.

Jose had a great year for us, but he was only under contract for one more season and he expressed interest in exploring other opportunities. Yes, he let us know that he was not interested in signing with California after 2012. That played a huge factor in our decision to move him now. We feel that he'll have an outstanding opportunity to play for Drew and Metropolis."

Bautista put on quite and offensive performance for California in 2011. However, there was a segment of the front office that felt that he actually underachieved. Bautista put up 44 home runs and 126 RBI. However, he struck out 132 times and ended the season with only a .244 batting average. A 55-homer season, and a .260+ average would have probably put California in the post-season. The club led the AL in one-run victories with 32, and 16 extra-inning wins. However, Bautista and the team fell apart in September, as they stumbled towards the finish line with an 11-11 record. The Roadunners missed the wild card by three games, and many blamed Bautista for not living up to the hype.

While many were surprised by the move as the Roadrunners were all set to return a formidable offense for 2012, it's time to move on and take a look at the new members of the team and where they might contribute next season and beyond.

Josh Beckett, SP
Beckett did not perform well during an injury-plagued 2011 with the Avengers. An 8-14, 5.44 season does not look good on paper. However, Beckett has a solid track record, and is ready to rebound for California in 2012. He will be penciled in for 30 starts as the #2 starter behind Ian Kennedy. This will push Bud Norris to the third spot, and Ivan Nova to the four.

 Mitch Moreland, 1B
Moreland played sparingly for Metropolis in 2011, batting only .224 in 143 at-bats. His 7 home runs project well, but is most likely to settle in somewhere around the 15-20 range for a full season. Moreland bats left, and his splits work out nicely and compliment John Mayberry, Jr. In essence, California now has its first-baseman with this platoon.

Jason Motte, RP
Motte threw well in the Avengers bullpen, tossing 52 solid innings in relief with a 3.44 ERA in 2011. But there's more to Motte than just his nice beard. He also picked up a couple of saves, showing that he can finish games if need be. That's exactly what California needs. After a falling out with closer Brandon Lyon, Motte will be asked to close out games in 2012.

Jarrod Parker, SP
Parker was drafted third overall by Metropolis in the 2011 BRASSball draft. He will be signed to a minor league contract for 2012, but is expected to begin starting for California in 2013. There will be high expectations for Parker, who will join Gerrit Cole and Christian Freidrich as the top starting pitching prospects in the organization.