BRASSball Farm System Rankings

Fleetwood's Mike Trout

I'm a Baseball prospect junkie. I'm also a stats geek. I both love and hate Microsoft Excel. Put all of that together, and you get what I call the BRASSball Farm System Rankings (BFSR). I always ask myself if I enjoy Baseball and Strat-O-Matic more this time of year than during the actual MLB season. I think I can admit that I probably enjoy them at least equally.

While the Hot Stoves are burning this time of year, the various publications and online sources publish their prospect rankings for the upcoming year. These rankings come in various forms: by organization, position, and overall. Some of the lists include grades, while others include projected WARs, and some are based solely off production and projections. Sprinkle in some opinions and a dash of politics, and you have your lists. 

Sure, these lists are great when you're up in the draft and the clock is ticking away. You don't know what you're doing so you start scanning the top prospects by organization alphabetically until you find Billy Hamilton from Cincinnati available (D'oh! Wait, that was me). But how do you weigh one source's opinion over the other? How much "opinion" or infatuation about a player influences a player's position on a list? This is where my system comes into play.

What I did was take what I consider to be the most reputable sources and combine all of these lists into one, massive ranking system. Then, I decided to award bonus points if the player showed up with other types of ranking attributes such as grades, stars, tools, etc. I also gave additional points to players that ranked higher when compared against each other at a position or overall ranking regardless of the organization.

I also put a huge emphasis on player progression. If a player was considered a prospect of some kind in 2011, and advanced to the majors to any degree, they received a substantial number of "progression points." That's what it's all about, getting to the BIGs, right? All in all, it looks like chaos, but it makes sense to me and my whacked out brain.

Now on to the good stuff: the actual list for BRASSball. I'll admit that that this list is not 100% complete, but just about every player I consider to be eligible has been factored in one way or another. Also: no hard feelings either way as this list is automatically generated from the data.

RANK	TEAM	BFSR POINTS
1	San Jose	214.53
2	Fleetwood	200.63
3	Metropolis	196.91
4	Portsmouth	194.07
5	California	161.74
6	Fremont	148.22
7	Santa Barbara	146.33
8	Cook County	140.32
9	Brew City	132.69
10	Parkland	117.32
11	North Georgia	94.26
12	Hessville	93.92
13	Superior	90.10
14	Plaza	89.30
15	Tinley	83.09
16	Florence	82.71
17	SoCal	82.28
18	Simi Valley	78.52
19	Glen Allen	74.18
20	Lancaster	73.79
21	Springfield	64.30
22	Brooklyn	51.84
23	Palm Harbor	42.06
24	Latrobe	27.89

Why did I do this? Well, I needed to satisfy the Baseball stats nerd in me, but ideally, this list can help all of us. The goal was to provide some meaningful number that would allow each team to take stock in their amateurs, minor leaguers, and young stars. It should give each team a sense of how competitive they'll be for the long-term. The rankings are not meant to project how a team will perform during the upcoming or current season. 

In future blog posts, I'm going to provide more details team-by-team, so you can see those numbers somewhat justified. I will also post updates to the list as players are traded and more prospect information rolls in during the off-season.

Aramis Returns to California, Signs New Four-Year Deal

The 2011 BRASSball Free Agency period is well underway. With hopes low for adding any new players to the roster, the California Roadrunners opted to re-sign their only restricted free agent, Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez returns to the Roadrunners with a four-year contract worth $14.26M.

In 2010, Ramirez had a down year to say the least. He hit .210 with 19 home runs and 69 RBI. He was also a defensive liability at third. So why re-sign him to this long-term deal? Obviously, the club feels strongly that a huge season is right in front of him, but Ramirez factors into the team's long-term plans as well.

Aramis will be eligible to play in about 157 games, which means he will be the team's full-time third baseman in 2011. Being able to plug in a guy at a position and know that you can run him out there every day of the season and be productive is quite a luxury. A luxury the Roadrunners were able to afford.

Ramirez's eligible usage is second only to Carlos Lee, the team's full-time DH. However, Lee is only under contract for 2012, and will be an unrestricted free agent after next season. This opens up the DH spot for Ramirez for the final three years of his deal, while Brett Lawrie and/or Scott Sizemore take over at third base.

The other factor is that California is gambling on winning the AL West next season. Sure, Santa Barbara pulled away down the stretch and is currently participating in the World Series against Springfield. However, it makes sense to return arguably the top third baseman on the free agent market to the fold. Ramirez will be expected to hit cleanup in most lineup variations, somewhere between or around Josh Hamilton, Torii Hunter, and Carlos Lee.

Setting Up for a Roadrunners Run in 2012

There have been twenty-three trades in BRASSball this off-season. I don't know if that's a league record or not, but it's the most I can ever remember in all of my years playing Strat-O-Matic. All of these players, picks, and cash moving around makes me a little nervous. I wonder about the uncertainty of all this change and how it will affect teams in the long run. You have to hope that every trade made will end up helping both teams equally, but you and I both know that's never the case. Why would you make a trade if you didn't feel that you were getting some kind of edge in the deal?

California ignited the BRASSball Hot Stove when we dealt Jose Bautista to Metropolis, and Plaza turned up the heat when Justin Verlander was moved to Latrobe. Since those two deals, BRASSball has seen the following exchanged:

• 71 players, including Matt Kemp, Roy Halladay, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Jeremy Hellickson, Trevor Bauer, Michael Pineda, and Kevin Youkilis
• 17 draft picks, including one #1, two #2s, and three #3s
• $7,433,333 cash, almost half of which spent by San Jose to acquire Jurikson Profar from Cook County

Cook County and San Jose each made seven trades (so far) between October 2011 and November 2011. The California Roadrunners were the next most active club with six. We've already broken down the Jose Bautista deal, so here's a rundown of the other five deals.

California trades Chris Volstad to Frisco for GAU #6 (2012)

This was simply a move to give Frisco (now San Jose) some cheap innings pitched, with some moderate potential for Volstad to finally break out. The Roadrunners had given up on Volstad and were considering his release as an open roster spot looked more appealing.

Springfield trades Sean Marshall to California for CAL #3 (2012)

This deal was pretty much about ego. Sean Marshall was dealt to Springfield prior to the 2011 season in the Gerrit Cole deal. While California is still pleased to have Cole in their amateur system, moving Marshall as part of the deal left some regret. During the entire 2011 MLB season, Marshall was observed, and the club wanted him back as part of their 2012 squad. California has a handful of goals for 2012. One of those goals is having one of the top bullpens in the AL. Marshall will hopefully help achieve that goal.

Latrobe trades Roy Halladay, Yorvit Torrealba to California for Ivan Nova, Christian Friedrich, CAL #2 (2012), CAL #4 (2012)

This. Was. The. Big. One. Dealing Bautista was difficult, but necessary. The couple of trades that followed were nice, but not game-changers. Adding long-time BRASSball ace Roy Halladay has, on paper, upset the balance of the AL West. Having to move Nova and Friedrich along with two high draft picks may appear to be costly for the future of the franchise, but Halladay is under contract for both 2012 and 2013. Nova was penciled in as the #4 starter behind Kennedy, Beckett, and Norris. Friedrich projected as a "Cliff Lee type," but didn't look like he was going to be ready for full-time action for another two years. Not to be forgotten in the deal is Torrealba. He gives the team a starting catcher after entering the off-season with zero plate appearances from behind the dish.

Lancaster trades Torii Hunter to California for Julio Borbon, Chris Valaika

Now that Doc Halladay was in the fold, there was some internal pressure to make sure the Roadrunners were in a position to win. Win NOW, I should say. When Lancaster put Torii Hunter on the block, California reacted and struck first. Hunter is tied up with an expensive contract (he'll be on the second year of a three-year, $12.99M deal), but his offense and defense is actually a significant upgrade. The only other real offensive threat under contract is Josh Hamilton, and he has injury concerns entering 2012. Hunter, while expensive, brings some pop, some glove, and a lot of stability to the roster.

Cook County trades Matt Thornton to California for CAL #6 (2012), $350k

The Roadrunners picked up lefty Matt Thornton as sort of a last-minute, impulse-buy-kind-of deal. When putting together a playoff-caliber bullpen, you want to have a lefty specialist that you can whip out in the 7th or 8th inning with the game on the line. The Roadrunners now have two of those after picking up Thornton to go alongside Sean Marshall. With two sixth-round picks in the 2012 draft, moving one of them was not an issue. Cook County loves him some cash in a trade, so the $350K keeps him happy.

All in all, it was a busy off-season for California. Many a draft-pick were dealt away, as was about $10M in money spent on contracts. The Roadrunners, basically, looked at it as two free agency signing periods, and didn't mind spending some of it's hard-earned coin on some players that are poised to play key roles in what hopes to be a fun and exciting 2012 season. 

BOOM HEY OUTTA HERE

I fully blame our illustrious Commissioner, Brian, for this now being stuck in my head:

And the reference to the "BOOM HEY OUTTA HERE" gloss:

And now that this is stuck in your head, we can consider it part of the formal BRASSball lore.

A Tweet By Torii Hunter, Illustrated

Via Fangraphs at http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/a-tweet-by-torii-hunter-illustrated/

Bautista Dealt to Metropolis for Four Players

There comes a time when you need to make the tough decisions in hopes to make your team better for the longer term. That day arrived courtesy of a trade with the Metropolis Avengers. Will it upset fans hoping for another offensive outburst in California in 2012? Yeah, probably. Did the Roadrunners deal away a potential top 3 AL MVP candidate in Jose Bautista? Most certainly.

In a major off-season move, the California Roadrunners sent slugger and OPS monster Jose Bautista to the Metropolis Avengers in exchange for Josh Beckett, Mitch Moreland, Jason Motte, and Jarrod Parker. Roadrunners' GM Brendan Conrad held a press conference this week to try and explain the organization's position in trading arguably one of the best BRASSball players.

"Listen: we were about to enter the off-season free agency period with only 2 1/2 legitimate starting pitchers, no DH or first baseman, no catcher, and no bullpen. With one trade, we were able to get a 30-game starter, an actual glove at first base (no offense, El Caballo), a closer, and a top pitching prospect. I don't know where else we would be able to secure upgrades in all of those spots without having to spend our entire bank account in the free agent market.

Jose had a great year for us, but he was only under contract for one more season and he expressed interest in exploring other opportunities. Yes, he let us know that he was not interested in signing with California after 2012. That played a huge factor in our decision to move him now. We feel that he'll have an outstanding opportunity to play for Drew and Metropolis."

Bautista put on quite and offensive performance for California in 2011. However, there was a segment of the front office that felt that he actually underachieved. Bautista put up 44 home runs and 126 RBI. However, he struck out 132 times and ended the season with only a .244 batting average. A 55-homer season, and a .260+ average would have probably put California in the post-season. The club led the AL in one-run victories with 32, and 16 extra-inning wins. However, Bautista and the team fell apart in September, as they stumbled towards the finish line with an 11-11 record. The Roadunners missed the wild card by three games, and many blamed Bautista for not living up to the hype.

While many were surprised by the move as the Roadrunners were all set to return a formidable offense for 2012, it's time to move on and take a look at the new members of the team and where they might contribute next season and beyond.

Josh Beckett, SP
Beckett did not perform well during an injury-plagued 2011 with the Avengers. An 8-14, 5.44 season does not look good on paper. However, Beckett has a solid track record, and is ready to rebound for California in 2012. He will be penciled in for 30 starts as the #2 starter behind Ian Kennedy. This will push Bud Norris to the third spot, and Ivan Nova to the four.

 Mitch Moreland, 1B
Moreland played sparingly for Metropolis in 2011, batting only .224 in 143 at-bats. His 7 home runs project well, but is most likely to settle in somewhere around the 15-20 range for a full season. Moreland bats left, and his splits work out nicely and compliment John Mayberry, Jr. In essence, California now has its first-baseman with this platoon.

Jason Motte, RP
Motte threw well in the Avengers bullpen, tossing 52 solid innings in relief with a 3.44 ERA in 2011. But there's more to Motte than just his nice beard. He also picked up a couple of saves, showing that he can finish games if need be. That's exactly what California needs. After a falling out with closer Brandon Lyon, Motte will be asked to close out games in 2012.

Jarrod Parker, SP
Parker was drafted third overall by Metropolis in the 2011 BRASSball draft. He will be signed to a minor league contract for 2012, but is expected to begin starting for California in 2013. There will be high expectations for Parker, who will join Gerrit Cole and Christian Freidrich as the top starting pitching prospects in the organization.

Down the Stretch 2011 - Florence at California

With one home series left to go, California was running out of hope. The Roadrunners sat a full game behind Plaza in the AL Wild Card standings, but had played eight more games than the Lions. There wasn't much we could do about that, but we could try to win our final home series. Florence came into town on a hot, musty September afternoon to try and knock off the Roadrunners for good in 2011.

Game 1: Florence 7, California 4

The first game of the series matched up Bruce Chen (2-4, 3.10 in only two games started) against September call-up Bud Norris (2-7, 4.76). The two threw like aces through three, despite three warning track blasts by the home team. In the top of the fourth, the bad luck continued as Jack Cust hit a seemingly routine fly ball that Jose Bautista lost. This allowed Cust to advance to second, and he later scored on a single by Daric Barton to give the River Bats a 1-0 lead. Taking advantage of a frustrated starting pitcher, Will Venable then smashed a two-run home run to deep center field to extend the lead to 3-0.

In the sixth, Bautista's troubles in left field continued as he just missed a line drive by Barton. It was ruled a double, and the inning continued. Norris struggled to gain his composure yet again, and walked Venable putting runners at first and second. Bautista, clearly distracted then allowed a bloop single to Xavier Paul that scored Barton to make it 4-0. Ryan Perry then relieved Norris, but couldn't change the bad luck California was having. Paul stole second despite several pick-off attempts, opening up first base for Pedro Feliz. Opting to pitch to Feliz, he countered with a swinging bunt back to Perry. Surprised, Perry took forever getting off the mound to field the ball, and Feliz was safe at first on an infield hit. This scored Venable to put Florence up 5-0.

The Roadrunners finally solved Chen in the bottom half of the sixth. Chris Valaika led off with a single, and shortstop Paul Janish took Chen deep to left-center for his fourth home run of the year. With the score now 5-2, Carlos Lee singled and advanced to second after Aramis Ramirez grounded out. With two outs, Julio Borbon rocked Chen for a double that scored Lee from second cutting the lead back down to two runs at 5-3. Sam Lecure was then called in from the bullpen to relieve a tired Bruce Chen. Lecure struck out pinch-hitter Casper Wells to end the inning.

Now sensing a comeback, the Roadrunners called on Will Ohman to face Martin Prado with a runner on first (and a slew of lefties to follow). Prado took the first pitch he saw and planted it securely in the rocks in left-center. Florence now held a 7-3 lead in the seventh inning. Ohman was left in and took the Roadrunners to the ninth without allowing a run. Lecure shut down the California offense until the bottom of the ninth when Rod Barajas hit his 20th homer of the season. But it was too little, too late as Lecure got Rafael Furcal to ground out to short to end the game.

Game 2: California 5, Florence 4

The pressure was now on for California. The current standings had them a game and a half behind Plaza, which meant they would have to win out in order to have any kind of chance at making the post-season. On paper, the second game of the series was going to be a tough match up for California as Florence sent 11-8 Gio Gonzalez and his 3.46 ERA to the hill. Seven-game winner (and 12-game loser) John Lackey took the ball to represent California.

All was quiet until the bottom of the third inning. Gonzalez was cruising along until Kosuke Fukudome launched his 12th home run of the year deep into right field to give the Roadrunners an early 1-0 lead. California was clinging to that one-run lead until the top of the sixth. Starlin Castro lead off the inning with a double, and Jack Cust followed with a laser beam single into right to tie the game at one. The River Bats ended up loading the bases, but reliever Matt Guerrier was able to get Pedro Feliz to ground out to third to end the inning with the score tied 1-1.

In the bottom of the seventh, lefty September call-up Jarrod Dyson was called on to pinch hit against Plaza's Todd Wellemeyer. It looked like the perfect time for a pitching change, but Dyson was pitched to instead, and promptly launched a bomb into deep center to give the home team a 2-1 lead. David Hernandez was then called in to pitch (one batter too late, maybe). Hernandez was out of control, throwing three walks and two wild pitches (one of which scored Bengie Molina from third).

With the score 3-1 in the ninth, the Roadrunners called on their closer, Brandon Lyon, to end the game. He ended up loading the bases with two outs, and was faced with Martin Prado, arguably Florence's best hitter (.304-22-89 entering the at-bat). The Roadrunners' pitching coach, Kenny Powers, visited Lyon on the mound to see if he could talk Lyon into getting Prado out. We don't know what Powers said to Lyon, but Lyon was visibly shaken. Prado singled, and Coco Crisp walked, and the game was tied at 3. Powers then stormed the mound and started taking swings at Lyon. Powers needed to be restrained by the coaching staff, and Lyon was removed from the game. Jeff Suppan needed to be woken up from his season-long nap to replace Lyon, still with the bases loaded. Suppan was able to get Will Venable to ground out to end the inning, and the Roadrunners came to bat.

With California failing to get the winning run home in the ninth, the River Bats capitalized on the second chance. With two outs in the tenth, Nick Hundley singled, and Carlos Guillen knocked him in with a double to take the lead 4-3. Ivan Nova was called in to get the final out of the inning, and things were looking very bleak. Now, down to their final out in the bottom of the tenth, Wilson Valdez scooted a single past Castro, keeping hope alive. With everything on the line, the Roadrunners sent up Manny Ramirez against Derek Holland. Ramirez took a chance and hit one deep to center off the wall, scoring Valdez all the way from first, tying the game up 4-4. Holland got out of the inning by pitching around Rod Barajas, and getting Fukudome to ground out.

Both clubs made it another inning, and we were on to the twelfth. Tenth-inning heroes Valdez and MAN-RAM were at it again. Valdez led the inning off with a double, and Ramirez followed up with a double to score Valdez and win it for California, 5-4. While it was a disappointing season for Manny Ramirez, he may have kept the Roadrunner playoff hopes alive, and brought momentum back for California.

Game 3: California 9, Florence 8

Game three looked like another mismatch on paper as Florence was set with hard-luck starter Fausto Carmona (9-14, 3.61). California had its own underachiever ready to go in Livan Hernandez (12-15, 4.85). The River Bats' best players showed up with something to prove and got things going early. Starlin Castro lead off the game with a double, and Martin Prado doubled him in to take a 1-0 lead in the first. Xavier Paul then hit a sacrifice fly with the bases loaded that scored Prado. Pedro Feliz kept things moving along with a single that scored Daric Barton, but the rally ended there, as Reggie Willits flew out to right with the bases loaded. Hernandez spotted the River Bats three runs before Mike Aviles stepped up to lead things off for California.

In the second inning, Jose Bautista decided to start chipping away at the three-run lead and hit a solo home run (his 41st) out to left field. That was all the home offense could muster, but the visiting team tacked on three more runs in the top of the third, knocking starter Hernandez out of the game. Hernandez was met with boos as he walked off the mound for what is most likely his last start for California, and possibly in BRASSball forever. The River Bats added two more runs in the top of the fourth to put the game out of reach at 8-1.

Things got interesting in the bottom of the eighth. With the score 8-2, the Roadrunners managed to score five thanks in part to Carlos Lee and his three-run home run. Then with one out, Mark Ellis walked against Matt Reynolds. Todd Wellemeyer was called in to face the pinch-hitter, Chris Valaika. The Roadrunners countered, however, with Kosuke Fukudome instead. Fukudome then hit one squarely over the right-field wall for a two-run home run, and a 9-8 lead.

Brandon Lyon was called on to finish this one, and finish it he did. California was victorious, 9-8, with a seven-run eighth inning! For Lyon, he picked up his 35th save of the year. Nate Robertson (4-0, 2.41) was the winner in relief. Todd Wellemeyer took the loss (even though Gil Meche surrendered 4 earned runs without allowing a hit, and Matt Reynolds gave up two runs in 1/3 of an inning). It was on to game four to see if California could keep up their magic.

Game 4: Florence 4, California 0

The two teams were now set for the final game of the regular season at California. Florence readied Wade LeBlanc (5-10, 5.33) for the showdown, while California called up Trevor Bell (1-2, 7.63) to see if he could prove to the club that he is worth of a spot on the team in 2012.

The River Bats jumped on top 1-0 in the third as the Roadrunners traded two outs with a double play for a run. They struck again in the top of the fifth when Will Venable singled, stole second and third, and scored when Osvaldo Martinez doubled. Florence extended their lead to 3-0 when Daric Barton singled off of Bell to score Martinez. Not wanting the game to get too far out of hand, Bell was replaced by the veteran Will Ohman, and Ohman got the team out of the jam.

LeBlanc was cruising along and pitched very well through six-plus innings. David Hernandez relieved LeBlanc in the seventh to extinguish a Roadrunner rally. In the top of the eighth, the River Bats added an insurance run with a sacrifice fly by Xavier Paul.

The River Bats closed things out as the California put on a lackluster performance in their season-ending home game. The series was split two-two, which was a disappointment for the home team. Needing every win they could possibly get to catch Plaza for the playoffs, California fell to 9-10 for the month of September. With all the excitement of this series, a lull of frustration and disappointment fell over the entire franchise as they sat a full game back of Plaza, with three games left to play (and Plaza with fifteen games left).