Wednesday, December 21, 2011

BRASSball Farm System Rankings - Part III

Parkland's Julio Teheran
The BFSR rankings have been updated to reflect some recent changes to the system. I realized that highly-ranked prospects were being penalized too severely when advancing to the majors. The original theory of "a top prospect advancing to the majors is no surprise and shouldn't be awarded a significant amount of progression points" didn't make sense to me anymore.

In my previous post, I used Julio Teheran (Parkland) as an example. Teheran, in the old system, was being punished for being Atlanta's consensus top organizational prospect both last year and this year. I've now adjusted how points are awarded for players like Teheran, and Parkland has deservedly moved up the BRASS system ranking as a result.

However, I still wanted to make sure that my system remained focused on the theme of player progression. Therefore, arguably the top prospect, Bryce Harper (Metropolis), continues to only receive a minimal amount of points. The reason for this is because players that we draft that ultimately make it to the major leagues are more rewarded in this system. When (and not if) Harper is called up, he will then be most likely promoted to the top of the entire list because of all the factors involved over the past couple of years. This would then probably vault Metropolis up to the very top of the BRASS team ranking list as well.

Now that I'm satisfied with all of the various formulas, I have some ideas for some new lists. In January, look for some new pages like "Top Overall Progression Prospects" and "Top Prospects that Reached the Majors in 2011." I'll also put up a list of prospects drafted in the upcoming 2012 BRASSball Draft, and see how they compare to my rankings.

I'm still waiting for a handful of prospect ranking sheets to be completed before I start posting the individual BRASS team reports. Some MLB teams are well represented, while others are not. I want to make sure there's a decent balance of information available before I begin the final breakdowns.

Monday, December 5, 2011

California Roadrunners Unveil New Team Logo, Bullpen Coach

The California Roadrunners are pleased to announce they have a new team logo and color scheme beginning with the 2012 season. The new logo will be used in all future BRASSball publications.

The color scheme for the Roadrunners has also been modified for the upcoming season. The former "powder blue" and white has been replaced with navy blue, orange, and white. The new logo will also appear on the front of player caps, replacing what fans called "The Tick" logo from 2011.

Home uniforms will remain white, with blue lettering across the chest and player number in orange on the front. Lettering and numbering on the back will also be in navy blue. Road uniforms will be gray, with dark orange lettering across the chest and player number in blue on the front. Lettering and numbering on the back will be in navy blue. A thin orange stripe will also be present on both home and road uniforms.

Management is also pleased to announce the addition of bullpen pitching coach Kenny Powers. Powers will be solely responsible for the development of the Roadrunner relievers beginning in 2012. The former big leaguer appeared in 208 games during his career, saving 49 games as a rookie with Atlanta back in 2002. Powers, also known as The People's Champion, The Shelby Sensation, The Reverse Apache Master, The Man with the Golden Dick, Doctor Cock and Balls, La Flama Blanca, and The Bulletproof Tiger, will be called upon to provide leadership and guidance for a completely revamped Roadrunner bullpen. Powers also spent time with The Charros of the Mexican League, and California hopes that his diverse experience will enable him to sensitively work with pitchers on a cultural, political, and possibly even a spiritual level. 




BRASSball Farm System Rankings - Part II

Simi Valley's Freddie Freeman
I received quite a bit of feedback on my initial post about the BRASSball Farm System Rankings. Most of the response was positive, but almost everyone that contacted me wanted more details on how I arrived at assigning a score to each team. Before I get into individual BRASS team breakdowns, I thought I would share a little more about my analytic process that I applied, and provide some examples.

First of all, I want to make it clear that this list is never-ending, in a way. I mean, there are always prospect lists and updates being churned out. They're being revamped all the time with new information, updates due to Arizona Fall League performance, injuries, trades, and general change of opinion by the author(s). We fellow BRASS managers just can't seem to leave our rosters alone either.

For these reasons, I've decided to keep a dedicated page for the rankings for everyone's reference. I will post the last time the list was updated, and if there was a change to the team's overall points.

With every list, there needs to be a reason why one player is ranked above the other. As I stated in my previous post, most lists rely on opinions and educational guesses. I tried to put together a system that ranks prospects and young players based on statistics and "fact." However, I would argue with myself that my system is also about opinion because of how I chose to put it together.

Player Progression
Player progression is the number one contributor when assigning a score and rank to a BRASSball team. This doesn't mean that the individual player's low score makes him any more or less desirable, or indicates that the player will be a five-tool stud or a bust. In my mind, it's simply a measurement of a prospect's value when compared to what they were projected to do: make it to the major leagues. 

A player will score higher if they were ranked as a "top prospect" prior to the previous season and advanced to the major leagues in a way that removed the player as a "prospect." The removal is based on the player's appearance on annual top prospect lists and rankings.

Here's an example of three players from Atlanta, and how they scored in this system in terms of progression: Freddie Freeman (Simi Valley), Julio Teheran (Parkland), and J.J. Hoover (North Georgia).

Freeman was awarded a significant amount of "Progression Factor" (PF) points because he had an average 2011 prospect rank of 2 and advanced to the majors in 2011. Teheran is currently the #1 prospect in the Braves' system, but he was also the #1 prospect last year. While Teheran did advance to the majors with 19 2/3 innings pitched, his appearance on every prospect ranking list in the country hurt his PF score this year. Basically, yes, he's a top prospect and is projected to be great, so his advancement to the majors in 2011 (while being highly ranked in 2011 and 2012) is not that surprising. However, he will have a significant PF score next season if he is called up at any point in 2012 and plays himself away from the "prospect" label.

In fact, if Teheran does plays enough to no longer be considered a prospect, he'll be awarded more PF points than Freeman received this year. This is because a higher-ranked prospect that makes the majors is more-likely to contribute value to his team than a lower-ranked prospect.

Hoover's ranking, on the other hand, actually declined slightly and was not called up to Atlanta to pitch last season. Therefore, he actually lost PF points. This doesn't mean Hoover isn't a prospect or won't get called up. In some cases, a MLB organization strengthened itself at the top through trades or the draft. All it means is the prospect hasn't yet contributed a positive value to the long-term outlook of the BRASSball team.

Currently, Parkland's overall score is lower than you might think. What makes my system different than your traditional organizational ranking scheme is that I'm emphasizing more of what a prospect has done recently than solely on what a prospect is proposed to do. This has value in a Strat-O-Matic league where we speculate, manage, and play in two worlds: the previous and the current Major League Baseball seasons.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

BRASSball Farm System Rankings

Fleetwood's Mike Trout
I'm a Baseball prospect junkie. I'm also a stats geek. I both love and hate Microsoft Excel. Put all of that together, and you get what I call the BRASSball Farm System Rankings (BFSR). I always ask myself if I enjoy Baseball and Strat-O-Matic more this time of year than during the actual MLB season. I think I can admit that I probably enjoy them at least equally.

While the Hot Stoves are burning this time of year, the various publications and online sources publish their prospect rankings for the upcoming year. These rankings come in various forms: by organization, position, and overall. Some of the lists include grades, while others include projected WARs, and some are based solely off production and projections. Sprinkle in some opinions and a dash of politics, and you have your lists. 

Sure, these lists are great when you're up in the draft and the clock is ticking away. You don't know what you're doing so you start scanning the top prospects by organization alphabetically until you find Billy Hamilton from Cincinnati available (D'oh! Wait, that was me). But how do you weigh one source's opinion over the other? How much "opinion" or infatuation about a player influences a player's position on a list? This is where my system comes into play.

What I did was take what I consider to be the most reputable sources and combine all of these lists into one, massive ranking system. Then, I decided to award bonus points if the player showed up with other types of ranking attributes such as grades, stars, tools, etc. I also gave additional points to players that ranked higher when compared against each other at a position or overall ranking regardless of the organization.

I also put a huge emphasis on player progression. If a player was considered a prospect of some kind in 2011, and advanced to the majors to any degree, they received a substantial number of "progression points." That's what it's all about, getting to the BIGs, right? All in all, it looks like chaos, but it makes sense to me and my whacked out brain.

Now on to the good stuff: the actual list for BRASSball. I'll admit that that this list is not 100% complete, but just about every player I consider to be eligible has been factored in one way or another. Also: no hard feelings either way as this list is automatically generated from the data.

RANKTEAMBFSR POINTS
1San Jose214.53
2Fleetwood200.63
3Metropolis196.91
4Portsmouth194.07
5California161.74
6Fremont148.22
7Santa Barbara146.33
8Cook County140.32
9Brew City132.69
10Parkland117.32
11North Georgia94.26
12Hessville93.92
13Superior90.10
14Plaza89.30
15Tinley83.09
16Florence82.71
17SoCal82.28
18Simi Valley78.52
19Glen Allen74.18
20Lancaster73.79
21Springfield64.30
22Brooklyn51.84
23Palm Harbor42.06
24Latrobe27.89

Why did I do this? Well, I needed to satisfy the Baseball stats nerd in me, but ideally, this list can help all of us. The goal was to provide some meaningful number that would allow each team to take stock in their amateurs, minor leaguers, and young stars. It should give each team a sense of how competitive they'll be for the long-term. The rankings are not meant to project how a team will perform during the upcoming or current season. 

In future blog posts, I'm going to provide more details team-by-team, so you can see those numbers somewhat justified. I will also post updates to the list as players are traded and more prospect information rolls in during the off-season.